Dangers of living the high life US style

I remember that as a young Engineering student I used to read Bussiness world magazine regularly.And I used to get happy whenever latest data of India's foreign exchange reserve used to be published.India crossed $200 billion..next month India crossed $230 billion mark.I never understood the real intent behind such enormous reserves but used to get happy that country is becoming strong. The latest same data for China is $3 trillion. That is 10 times bigger than India. It so happens that India is a very small player in the USD currency market.

Now what does this really mean.Does it mean that the amount should get indefinitely higher.In fact experts now worry about the enormous amount of USD currency held by Asian countries.We all know that currencies are very vulnerable to movements.Just like the stock market.Consider the scenario what happens if US goes bust.What will happens to such huge reserves.They will just be worthless paper. To avoid such a scenario countries all over the world have been giving debt to US by buying US govt. securities and bonds which in turn are guaranteed by the US govt.This means that we all have come to take the US government as the master of  us all. What if US says i do not have any money left.Who will bail out the world then? Recently rating agencies warned that they might lower the rating of US govt from AAA to AA.

This is a very worrying scenario which the governments all over the world realize but fear to admit as this would lead to wide panic in the market.And by market i mean Stock/Capital markets.The recent stock market crash in India shows the dependence Indian market has on FIIs.The Indian investor appears to be just a small fry in this huge ocean.We can just ride the wave if our timing is correct. The markets all over the world are not as rational as they used to be.

Experts warn that the bailouts given out by US govt have just delayed the inevitable and that another bubble is already underway.It is just a matter of time that the global economy will again slow down. This means that we are very tightly coupled to happenings in US. Any sane person would want to reduce such a dependency if not totally eliminate it.But it cannot be done in a short time.

The main reason for all this US debt, details of which can be found here(http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/), is the way successive US govts have not followed austerity measures so badly needed. The US govt has borrowed the most money from all over the world for Financial bailouts, afghanistan/Iraq wars, etc and not for education and health care. This is a bad wastage of badly needed money for much more worthy causes.

All these are very scary trends for the world as a whole as we are very much dependent on US.I really no longer believe on the Stock markets.Lets see how worse things get and badly hope US again gets a President like John F Kennedy who was a true people's leader rather than a puppet in the hands of the MNCs.

The conspiracy of USA against Osama

So again the cat is out of the magician's( read Uncle Sam's) hat. And the entire world media is eating out of the hands of the US fed media.The perfectly orchestrated story of Osama's killing long awaited by the people who know America's internal working is out. That Osama is killed by so and so armed division at so and so time and place blah blah.

But my question is was Osama really the man behind September 11? I hope most people around the world have forgotten where this cat and mouse game started. The pursuit started after the 9/11. But according to the natural procedures of justice there was never a formal indictment of Osama in those bombings. The US unilaterally went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq with NATO and started bombing the people. The 9/11 commission report was a total hogwash which ignored the most basic evidences pointing to the modus operandi of the killers. If the commission had really worked with integrity the truth would be very different and Osama would not turn out to be the Most wanted man in the world.

But this was not the plan of the US government.The plan was to get an excuse to implement the imperialist ambitions in the lucrative oil fields of middle east.And going by most predictions the US war in middle east is not going to end anytime soon. Not even if Osama is dead which was the first excuse why they came here. The plan is to have permanent stationed troops in the middle east and be the Big Brother there.

So personally i am not very surprised and happy over the killing of Osama. Because there still will not be peace in those troubled lands and innocent people will continue to suffer. As for the media, there target just like any corporations is the TRPs and not real news. So enjoy this news till there is next tamasha from the US.

The real Dhoni

First of all Congratulations to all reading my blog for the Indian world cup victory.I can imagine the euphoria in India even though i am not in the country. Many would have lost hope of the victory at the start of the Indian batting. But  i was hopeful for some contribution from the Youngistan.I somehow had the belief in Dhoni and his delivery capabilities.

Now let me put my opinion about Dhoni in perspective. I do not follow cricket very closely apart from hearing the ubiquitous banter from friends and family.But being the stubborn soul that i am i never was a fan of Dhoni. I am a Sachin tendulkar fan as i like the best things in life. I always liked the technical capabilities of a player.He should be good in either batting,bowling or fielding. But here was one player i could not categorize as the best in anything.

Still the World Cup victory of India is rightly seen as Dhoni's brain child.The media is praising him as the best CEO in India.Even the god of cricket gave him the most honourable title- best captain he has ever played under. This should be the biggest asset of Dhoni now. But how did this happen to a person i was not a fan of? I dwelt on this thought and then started analyzing his persona. There must be something in him that he has been able to do the unthinkable for India.

All will agree that technically he is not the best. But he is not merely a player in the team. He is the captain of the team.He has shattered the myth that a captain should be good in something. More than a captain he is the leader of the Indian team.He has somehow been able to bring out the best in every player and enabled them to work as a team. He has given each player space to develop and at the same time made them in to a team that works together. If one fails others should be ready to balance things out.This was his mandate.

In his career as captain spanning almost 5 years , i remember since the day 1, one quality of his has stood out- his decisiveness.In all pre-match conferences he spelled out team strategies as his own decisions and stood by them. His confident body language has instilled confidence in youngsters. He has given chance to many youngsters. I remember early on he rested many senior players after the 2007 world cup debacle in preparation for this 2011 cup.That was his vision.And it has paid off handsomely.

This nature of his to do experiments and give chance to the best impartially has earned him a respect that he is rightly considered as the undisputed leader even by Sachin. This is a testimony to his stature otherwise a post which was a tussle between all senior players.But now i guess selectors never need to look beyond Dhoni.

Even on field he is always Mr cool.That is the biggest asset which generally comes with age and experience .But he somehow has this valuable quality since day 1. One never sees him lost or biting nails or looking to the sky for answers. On field he is always busy talking strategies to players, shouting fielding positions and working out the best possible way to finish the match. He looks like a person in command.Though his decisions are always debatable but nevertheless they work for the team.And that's what makes the difference.

The world cup final was not only a game of technical capabilities but also of mental and phsychological strength. Its like any other team effort in the world.And no captain in the world knows this better than our MSD.

The age old ways of the Fat cat Bankers

The recent financial crisis must be fresh in the minds of the readers.More so in the minds of people who indirectly work for the USA. Everyone knows one thing for sure that the major credit for the spectacular bust goes to the fat cat Wall street bankers.And one would also expect that they believe in the adage- Once bitten twice shy. But not these fat cats.These bankers have pretty much gotten to their business as usual approach of taking undue and unwarranted risks with the money of the investors.

Recently there was news that Goldman Sachs has invested $500 million of its own money and another $1.5 billion from its investors in to facebook valuing it at over $50 billion.Now this is a company that has 2010 revenues between $1.2 -2 billion and close to 500 million users.The net income will be a paltry $350 million.

I will write purely from my own experience of social networking and the capital markets in India.We all saw how people had gone berserk with Orkut some 4-5 years ago.Every tom dick harry was there but now all silent on that front. So that's it.Social sites can never think of competing with google for Internet Ad sales.Everyone knows that the revenue numbers of the Internet business comes from the number of eyeballs these sites attract.  But google also serves one very important purpose- that of search.We all know people in general and small businesses will die if not found on Google. So Google is indispensable.But in social networking sites people come only to meet people and not to see ads.There are even options of blocking the ads.

So how much can facebook grow from here.Already the mark of 500 million users is quite huge.And when Goldman has put its money it must be looking at a profit margin of 4-5x.For this type of returns valuation of facebook rises to $250 billion.GAWD!!. Even with current valuation of $50 billion, facebook is worth more than Boeing which is the 100th largest publicly traded company in the world.

To put things in to perspective, the biggest tech success story of the last decade- Google is valued at 7 times its 2010 revenues.If facebook is valued by same multiple, its value comes to a mere $15 billion.To produce the same revenues as google, facebook will have to double its sales revenue for close to 10 years.Now that is a long shot even in the eyes of a unexperienced guy like me. So why did Goldman put that number on facebook?

Then let me tell you that this is what Goldman - the biggest giant of the Wall street does. From whatever i have seen in London is that there is a cut throat competition amongst the investment banks to produce better and newer investment products to produce even better quarterly results.They are always on the look for new investment opportunities and in their enthusiasm put some fancy valuations on companies. With the reputation of Goldman it always finds some gullible people whom it convinces to buy the derivatives that will be made from facebook shares.And then these financial products will be sold globally. And god knows what these will be called- tandoori bonds , junk bonds or liar liar bonds!!

The problem with such valuations is that it pollutes the financial eco-system.With such huge valuations for a 6 year old company, this then becomes a benchmark and the entire cycle of boom-bust again starts. This is exactly what happened in the very recent sub prime valuations.The only different was that fancy valuations were given to real estate market.And the rest ,as they say is history.

This same story is repeated in markets around the world and also in India.We all lost some money in the stock market loss 2 years back .Though the game was at stock market level and not at the corporate level.Thankfully we do not have investment banks in India.Jai ho hamare HDFC aur YES bank ki!!!

The deceit of the cricket diplomacy...

The recent India-Pakistan World cup semi-final grabbed some of the headlines for all the wrong reason. Our forever gullible and rubber-stamp prime minister did what the people least expect and want from him.He invited the pakistan PM to watch the match in Delhi in the presence of all.The media also reported the invite as if whole india is waiting with bated breath for the guy to accept the invite and honour us with his presence.

We called all this tamasha the cricket diplomacy and the PM endorsed it when after the match he said the beautiful game of cricket will bring both the nations together.Wake up SID!!! What are you talking? Are you so naive as to believe this shitty step of yours will melt the pakistani heart and they will soften their stance on any issue.

The 26/11 is still fresh in the minds of the country when the worst attack happened on indian soil.And here is a PM who shamelessly invites the head of the enemy country to witness the match.Why did he send the invite in the first place? Does his blood not boil like mine when i see that Pakistani bluffmaster attend the match and behaved as if he is obliging india.This one act of the PM has swept down the drain the heroism of the policemen who died fighting in Mumbai and so many of our best officers.I would like to tell every service men to learn from this cricket diplomacy that guys no need to fight for the country.

Next time whenever terrorists strike in any part of country , go to them with bat and ball instead of guns and resolve the issues like our Head of the country does, playing cricket. This bull shit is cricket diplomacy.

To the Bonny Bonny banks of Loch Lommond....

First day we started on our tour to the Bonny Bonny banks of Loch Lomond.That is the way it is referred in the scottish folklore and songs.The itinerary included a day spent in the land of scot heroes rob roy , william wallace and robert the bruce, a visit to the medieval stronghold of stirling castle and the beautiful nature and forests of Scotland's first national park- the Trossachs and finally the bonny bonny banks of Loch Lomond.

Our tour bus was a top of the range Mercedes minibus 16 seater. Rabbies tour - our tour operator - said a small number provides for a more personal touch to the tour experience. and they were true to their words.The tour started at 9:15 morning and was to end at 6 in the evening covering some 250 miles.The weather was cold at 5-6 degree.

We started from Royal mile and travelled to the north of edinburgh. It just takes a 20 minute drive to come out of the city; edinburgh being a small city.I forgot to mention that just the last day the weather had turned very cold.But still we were not expecting any snow in the scottish highlands. But as soon as we were at the foot hills crossing the farms and Bingo!!..we saw snow all around.The snow that had eluded us in london. Finally we saw it though at a speed of 50 mph..nonetheless the scenery had its effect on us. In an instant we forgot the tiredness of the 9 hour bus journey we had just finished 3 hours earlier.

Only the road stood out in contrast black colour. Everything else was covered in a thin blanket of scottish snow.We very much wanted to go out and play but that was not to be as we had a plan to be executed. Wifey dear got busy in clicking photos and saving for eternity of whatever little beauty we could capture. The pine trees, the farms , the sheep both white and pink!! all were covered in snow and i realised how beautiful mother nature could be. That's the effect the beauty of nature has.One feels humbled by the sheer beauty and grandness.

Our first stop was at Loch Lomond.This is the biggest Loch in Great Britain by surface area at 71 sq km.It is 39 Km long and 8 km wide.Wow..what a size.I wondered whether scotland has the world's largest reserves of fresh water and could become the next superpower with this abundance!!! what a thought. I being an ardent environmentalist was astouded to see the endless lake.We had a stop of 2 hours there and the driver advised us to take a walk by the bonny bonny banks of loch lomond  and climb a small hill. There was a small walkway just wide enough for one person to walk, carved on the sides of the hillock by the shore of the lake.

Amidst so much natural beauty the child in me gets the better of me and i try to see as much as possible and do as much as possible.Despite the weather at 4-5 degrees i put on the jacket and took my bag and with all eagerness started amidst the small village where our bus was parked. All around it felt as if we were in heaven.Everything looked just precisely in place and all playing there part in completing the harmony played out before us.

We started on the small winding pathway along the banks of the Loch and took pictures of all we could. There were not many people around and we had the surroundings all to ourselves.There were many boats and ferries parked in the banks as is the case with any scottish village as they are traditionally fishermen.

The walk amidst the forests of Trossachs national park was great .We walked as far as we could all alone and drank the cold water of the lake which was very sweet. I make it a point to drink natural water of any natural body to witness the purity that only nature is capable of and we humans can only dream of. Then we returned back to our starting point and started climbing up a small hill that had stone steps all the way to the top numbering 100. In no time we were at the top and had full view of the mountain ranges and the entire lake. From there we could atleast get some idea of the grandness of the lake. As far as the eye could see Loch lomond kept going on and on and on. The Scottish Lochs are actually formed from the melting of the icebergs of the last ice age and hence the enormous sizes. The trees were in all colours of green, yellow, red and orange and the cool breeze making it a moment that should last for a lifetime.

The time was fast passing by and all through the walk i bored my wife with my praise for the place and the moment we were witnessing.I told her to look at the scenery as much as possible as these were going to be our fondest memories. Now that i am writing about the place that i visited some 4 weeks back and already i find most of the magic missing.Only fond memories and some pictures.At least i got to thank my wife dear who makes it a point to take as many pics as possible in a day.Now these are all i have to relish the experiences gone by.That's why the time currently going on is known as present 'coz it is a gift for all of us.

The start of the Tour journey....

I have been waiting for sometime to share my experiences of trip to the scottish highlands. Before my wife was to leave for India i planned to make her first trip abroad a little special by taking her to the highlands of scotland.

As the name suggests it is a highland area in the North of England and topography generally consists of mountains which are called Ben. Our Guide taught us 4 words which completely describes the entire scottish countryside.These are - Glen ( a valley) , strata ( a wide valley), Loch ( a lake) and Ben (a mountain). This naming will make the rest of the article more fun to narrate ,rather more scottish.

We traveled by coach from london to edinburgh-the scottish capital. Edinburgh also called as Alba in the local Gaellic language. Before i start let me add that scotland country has close to 31000 lochs.Now that's an awesome number for a country the size of Karnataka state.

We reached the St. Andrews Bus station of edinburgh at 7:30 in the morning. As expected of firang land , we found the bus station very suitable for our requirement..that is off-loading ourselves.All the toilets in UK cities are paid ones. and everything is automated.you pop-in the money and then you can pop out.We did that and started to our tour operator shop.

The Edinburgh city has a road named Royal Mile. Much of the road is laid with granite stones like old ages and runs between two foci of history in scotland -the edinburgh castle and Holyrood abbey and is exactly 1 scots mile long. The city has retained the old world charm with its rich history and buildings.Both sides are lined with beautiful old buildings, chapels and tourist spots and  new shops ,all blend into each other.Even the Radisson hotel respects the old town and blends in with the same style . The city reflects the character of the scottish people. The scots are very proud of their origins and their fights with the British.

Though we started the day on a slight rainy pitch,it actually started to snow when we started from bus station to our tour stop.It was just a slight drizzle , nonetheless sufficient to get us excited for the journey. we crossed a road bridge and reached our tour operator- The rabbies Trail Burner tour.